Economists Wonder If Few or Many Will Benefit from AI
[00:00.29] Throughout history,
[00:01.96] technological progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people’s lives.
[00:10.91] Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI)
[00:17.90] will help or hurt society.
[00:22.11] Simon Johnson teaches economics at the
[00:26.02] Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston.
[00:30.49] He said AI has a lot of possibilities.
[00:34.11] But he added,
[00:35.50] “We are at a fork in the road.”
[00:38.30] A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation
[00:44.17] where the outcome is uncertain.
[00:47.25] Wealth, jobs and productivity
[00:47.65] McKinsey is a business consulting company.
[00:50.54] It said AI could add between $14 trillion
[00:55.58] and $22 trillion of value to
[00:59.51] the world’s economy.
[01:02.02] Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards.
[01:09.58] Some go as far as saying AI will increase people’s free time and help them be more creative.
[01:18.52] But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs.
[01:24.39] They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology.
[01:32.17] The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs.
[01:40.84] Last month, the French bank Natixis noted in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires.
[01:52.01] And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers.
[01:57.61] The bank warned in its report,
[02:00.69] “We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor productivity.”
[02:08.25] In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
[02:14.96] released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI.
[02:21.38] Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction.
[02:27.26] But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard.
[02:36.19] Lessons from history
[02:36.75] Such concerns are not unfounded. History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful.
[02:46.82] Johnson recently published a book,
[02:49.61] Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu,
[02:54.66] another economist from MIT.
[02:57.45] They studied technological progress over the last
[03:00.80] 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel,
[03:05.56] and even food shopping.
[03:08.91] The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn.
[03:18.14] They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the late 1700s.
[03:26.81] However, it also increased the demand for cotton and led to longer hours for workers.
[03:35.21] The demand also led to the growth of slavery in the southern United States.
[03:42.50] Johnson noted that it is easier to create something new than to make sure it works for everyone.
[03:49.78] His book shows how the arrival of rail travel improved the lives of many people in England in the 1800s.
[03:59.27] People were able to travel longer distances and eat fresh food because it could move faster from farms to cities.
[04:09.33] On the other hand,
[04:11.00] Johnson said self-checkout technology at food stores does not lower the cost or make life easier for people.
[04:21.07] All it does is reduce the number of workers and help businesses lower labor costs.
[04:29.46] As for AI technology, Johnson wonders if it will make existing inequalities worse, or “could it help us get back to something fairer?”
[04:41.48] I’m Dan Friedell.
